N. Prabhakaran Dubai: Speculation regarding the future center of power in Iran has intensified following reports that Supreme Leader Ayatoll...
N. Prabhakaran
Dubai: Speculation regarding the future center of power in Iran has intensified following reports that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint military operation by the United States and Israel. The death of Khamenei is a pivotal event that could shake the very foundations of Iran's government and political system.
Meanwhile, buoyed by the immediate fall of Khamenei, the US and Israel are in high spirits. If Trump and Netanyahu decide to extend the planned one-week operation to eliminate the entire top leadership and hand over power to a preferred puppet government, the need for a new Supreme Leader may cease to exist. Under current circumstances, such a possibility is gaining prominence. This is because the US finds control over Iranian oil essential to recover—tenfold—the billions of dollars spent on the military campaign. To achieve this, a puppet government is a necessity.
In a political system ruled by Khamenei for over three decades, a sudden transition of power could trigger a constitutional crisis. While names like Mojtaba Khamenei (Khamenei's son) and Hassan Khomeini are being mentioned as potential successors, no one currently possesses the same level of influence as Khamenei.
In addition to Khamenei, prominent leaders including Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), were also killed. Although an attack targeted President Masoud Pezeshkian, his current condition remains unclear.
The Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for electing the Supreme Leader, plays a vital role in this crisis. However, the stance of the IRGC—the nation’s military powerhouse—will be decisive in determining the next ruler.
Khamenei’s death could destabilize the foundations of Iran's Islamic theocracy. The world is watching closely to see how this loss will impact a decades-old administrative order and whether it will lead to internal uprisings.
Mojtaba Khamenei
The Succession Crisis
The question of a successor has turned into a major political crisis. Following reports of Khamenei’s death, no official announcement has been made regarding a new Supreme Leader. According to the Iranian constitution, the Assembly of Experts, consisting of 88 senior clerics, must choose the successor. Potential candidates include:
Mojtaba Khamenei: Ali Khamenei’s second son. A key figure in the corridors of power with close ties to the IRGC.
Alireza Arafi: Head of Iran’s seminary system and a member of the Guardian Council. He is seen as a candidate who would maintain the status quo.
Mohsen Qomi: A close advisor to Khamenei and an expert in international relations.
Sadeq Larijani: Former Judiciary Chief with significant influence within the administrative framework.
Mohseni Ejei: The current Chief Justice. He enjoys support from factions prioritizing internal security and strict governance.
Given the war-like situation, the Revolutionary Guard may push for a leader who protects military interests. The possibility of a "Leadership Council" taking over instead of a single individual cannot be ruled out.
Temporary Leadership
Per the constitution, a temporary committee will manage affairs until a new leader is elected. This typically includes:
The President (Masoud Pezeshkian)
The Chief of Judiciary (Mohseni Ejei)
A cleric from the Guardian Council
The Power Structure: Key Concepts
Velayat-e Faqih: Iran’s governance is based on Sharia (Islamic Law). The core principle is "Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist," where a senior religious scholar leads the nation as the representative of the "Hidden 12th Imam."
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): A parallel military force separate from the regular army. Its mission is to protect the values of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. They control large sectors of the economy, including oil and construction.
Quds Force: The foreign wing of the IRGC that supports groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
Basij Militia: A volunteer force used to control the domestic population and suppress protests.
Guardian Council: A powerful 12-member body. Half are appointed by the Supreme Leader. They can veto laws passed by Parliament and vet candidates for elections, often disqualifying moderates.
The simultaneous loss of the Supreme Leader and top military commanders creates a power vacuum. This could lead to a conflict between the regular army and the IRGC, or trigger massive public uprisings. The US and Israel are frequently reminding the Iranian people that this is the opportune moment to topple the regime through popular revolt.
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