N. Prabhakaran DUBAI: Despite nearly two weeks of sustained US and Israeli aerial bombardments, US intelligence reports suggest that Iran’s ...
N. Prabhakaran
DUBAI: Despite nearly two weeks of sustained US and Israeli aerial bombardments, US intelligence reports suggest that Iran’s leadership remains resilient and the government is not on the brink of collapse. These findings were detailed in a report recently released by Reuters.
Citing three sources with direct knowledge of the situation, the analysis indicates that the regime is not currently in immediate danger, as it maintains firm control over the Iranian populace.
The Rise of Mojtaba Khamenei
A pivotal moment in this conflict occurred on February 28, when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an attack. Despite this, the unity of Iran's clerical leadership appears unshaken. The Assembly of Experts has already declared his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader—a move seen as a strategic effort to maintain internal stability, given his years of behind-the-scenes influence.
The Resilience of the Revolutionary Guard
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) serves as the military and economic backbone of the nation. Although US strikes successfully neutralized several high-ranking commanders, the IRGC’s deep-rooted organizational structure remains functional. Intelligence suggests that the IRGC continues to exert more control over the country’s daily operations than the civilian government itself.
The Kurdish Factor and Ground War Realities
On Iran's western borders, Kurdish militias (such as the Komala Party) are reportedly mobilized to take up arms against the regime. However, US intelligence assesses that these groups lack the armored vehicles and heavy weaponry necessary to withstand a counter-offensive by Iran’s security forces.
While President Trump initially called upon the Iranian people to overthrow the regime, senior officials later clarified that "regime change" is not the official objective. Nevertheless, Israel remains committed to ensuring that no remnants of the current clerical establishment remain in power. Observers now believe that removing the Iranian government is practically impossible without a full-scale ground invasion—a move reminiscent of the 2003 Iraq War.
Global and Economic Consequences
The prolonged conflict has triggered a massive international crisis. Strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure and tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have caused global oil prices to skyrocket.
Political Pressure: Rising fuel prices in the US are creating significant domestic pressure for President Trump, who has hinted at a potential early end to military operations.
Strategic Dilemma: Ending the war without a transition of power remains a challenge. While the bombings have crippled Iran’s oil depots and economic centers, the lack of a unified internal opposition means there is no clear successor to take the reins.
Israel’s Objectives: For Israel, the goal is to permanently dismantle a regime it views as an existential threat. Even if immediate regime change is not achieved, Israel is focused on setting Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities back by decades.
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