N. Prabhakaran DUBAI: Iran has issued a major declaration that has sent shockwaves through the United States and Israel. Brigadier General M...
N. Prabhakaran
DUBAI: Iran has issued a major declaration that has sent shockwaves through the United States and Israel. Brigadier General Majid Mousavi, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that Iran will henceforth only deploy missiles equipped with warheads weighing 1,000 kilograms or more.
If implemented, this policy could cause unprecedented destruction across the Gulf. By doubling the strike power of its primary arsenal, Iran is significantly escalating the potential intensity of any future conflict. Reporting on the development, the Lebanese channel Al Mayadeen quoted General Mousavi stating that the scope and destructive capacity of Iranian missile strikes would increase exponentially. Experts fear that targets—previously limited to U.S. and Israeli military installations—may now expand to include strategic regional hubs such as Dubai International Airport and Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery.
A Strategic Pivot in Iranian Tactics
Military observers suggest that Tehran is pivoting away from its "attrition" strategy—using low-cost Shahed drones to exhaust enemy air defense systems. The new priority focuses on larger, faster, and more sophisticated missiles designed to penetrate and destroy "hardened" targets, such as underground command centers and fortified airbases.
Iran is effectively rewriting the "economics of war." This shift disrupts the traditional calculus of missile defense. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Iran already maintains the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East. While the U.S. and Israel have successfully intercepted many of these assets in the past, Iran has spent years preparing for a high-intensity conflict of this nature.
Key Assets in the New Doctrine:
Soumar: A nuclear-capable cruise missile with an estimated range of 3,000 km.
Sejjil: A solid-fueled, medium-range ballistic missile with a 2,000 km range.
Khorramshahr: A heavy-hitter capable of carrying up to 1,800 kg of explosives with a range of 2,000–3,000 km.
The Asymmetric Cost of Defense
To date, Iran’s strategy relied on a cost imbalance. A single Shahed drone costs approximately $50,000, whereas the Patriot interceptor used to down it costs roughly $4 million. Similarly, an Arrow-3 interceptor costs nearly $3 million.
While this economic disparity has long favored Iran, the U.S. and Israel have been forced to absorb these massive costs to maintain a "zero-leakage" defense policy.
By increasing the standard warhead weight to one metric ton (1,000 kg), the margin for error in missile defense disappears. If a single interceptor fails, the resulting impact would be catastrophic.
Moreover, Iran’s newer missile variants feature enhanced maneuverability, allowing them to change course mid-flight. This makes interception a daunting task even for advanced systems like Israel’s Arrow-3 or the U.S. THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense).
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