MOSCOW: The UK is urging the removal of US restrictions on long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia; US President Donald Trump may post...
MOSCOW: The UK is urging the removal of US restrictions on long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia; US President Donald Trump may postpone launching a global trade war by a few months; and France along with 14 other Western countries plan to recognize Palestinian statehood by September. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: UK pushes to lift ban on strikes deep inside Russia, hopes to sway US stance
The United Kingdom may influence the United States to resume strikes deep within Russian territory using long-range weaponry, according to sources in the British Parliament cited by Izvestia. London also appears willing to purchase American weapons for Ukraine, despite growing public fatigue with the conflict. This renewed interest among UK politicians is further driven by Donald Trump’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric toward Russia, particularly his decision to shorten the Ukraine peace deal deadline from 50 days to 10, and to impose secondary sanctions on Moscow’s partners.
According to Izvestia, London has the potential to convince Washington to remove restrictions on the use of US weapons for deep strikes inside Russia. "Prime Minister Starmer could very well attempt to persuade President Trump to approve such deeper strikes into Russian territory, but Trump will likely realize that doing so could prolong the conflict, contradicting his publicly stated goals," Richard Balfe, a member of the House of Lords, said.
UK officials frequently raise the issue of lifting strike restrictions for Ukraine during both bilateral and multilateral meetings, analyst Tigran Meloyan told the newspaper. The possible removal of the ban may be triggered by an expected collapse in Trump’s Ukraine peace initiative. On July 29, the US president announced that the previously set 50-day deadline for a settlement between Moscow and Kiev was now reduced to 10 days, effectively expiring on August 8.
"Once Trump’s deadline for Russia expires, the US position on lifting all restrictions on weapons use is unlikely to change substantially. Trump prefers to act independently rather than follow the lead of junior allies like London or Brussels," Meloyan said. "Furthermore, he is keen to portray himself as a peacemaker, someone who resolved the Ukraine conflict rather than pushed the world closer to a new global war. It is more probable that upcoming efforts will focus on expanding the range of weapons provided and tightening economic sanctions," he added.
According to the expert, the primary risk of giving the Ukrainian Armed Forces such autonomy is that, with European support, they may begin targeting strategic sites deep within Russia without prior coordination with Washington.
Izvestia: Trump may delay starting global trade war
The United States is likely to push back the renewal of a global trade war, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. Measures initially set to take effect on August 1, when Donald Trump planned to impose tariffs on various countries, are expected to be postponed by two to three months for most affected nations.
The base tariff rate is set at 10%, though many countries face significantly higher rates. For instance, the EU, in exchange for phasing out imports of Russian oil, will see its tariff rate cut from 30% to 15%, and 25% rate will apply to goods from Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Tunisia, and South Korea, with Laos and Myanmar facing the highest tariff at 40%.
Independent analyst Andrey Barkhota told the newspaper he agrees that the US administration may still amend the list of countries affected. Most countries are expected to see tariff implementation delayed by 60 to 90 days. This flexibility may enable Trump to secure trade deals more quickly while avoiding the formation of an anti-American trade coalition.
Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam Financial Group, noted that worst-case scenarios may be sidestepped as the deadline nears. While tariff adjustments have already been postponed, Trump is reportedly still considering their final structure, including discussions of potential global tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
Tariffs are expected to slow global economic growth and intensify trade tensions, economist and financial markets expert Olga Gogaladze warned. Even a universal 10% tariff could reduce global GDP by around 1%, while higher rates could bring the figure to 2%, potentially triggering recession and inflation across several sectors.
For Russia, new tariffs may reduce global demand for oil, metals, and other raw materials, potentially shrinking budget revenues by 0.2-0.3% of GDP (around 600 bln rubles or $7.4 bln) and adding just 0.1 percentage point to inflation, entrepreneur and SharesPro fintech platform founder Denis Astafyev suggested. He emphasized that, for now, neither the ruble nor inflation expectations have shifted significantly in response to the tariff rhetoric.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Western nations pivot on Israel, back recognition of Palestine in September move
France is leading a coalition of nations ready to establish diplomatic ties with Palestine. The French Foreign Ministry published a statement signed by the foreign ministers of 15 Western countries, affirming their readiness to formally recognize Palestine as an independent state as early as September. The statement also calls on other UN members to follow their lead. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe the initiative to recognize Palestinian statehood may be a strategic political move, particularly by Emmanuel Macron, aimed at boosting domestic approval.
In addition to France’s Jean-Noel Barrot, signatories include foreign ministers from Australia, Andorra, Ireland, Spain, Iceland, Canada, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, New Zealand, Portugal, Slovenia, San Marino, and Finland.
Although the signatories stress that the move is not an anti-Israel gesture, Israeli authorities may perceive it differently. The US response also remains unclear, with President Donald Trump recently saying he does not intend take a position on the issue of Palestinian independence.
International affairs expert Elena Suponina told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the initiative reflects a political strategy, especially by French President Emmanuel Macron. "He’s analyzing his falling approval ratings and looking for ways to boost them. Many in France sympathize with the Palestinians, which explains the motivation behind this declaration," she explained.
Nonetheless, the statement sends an important signal. "It shows Israeli authorities that the wave of sympathy in Europe following the October 7, 2023, attacks has now tilted toward the Palestinians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will need to take that into account," Suponina added.
Vedomosti: Trump threatens India with 25% tariffs and penalties over Russian oil purchases
The US will impose 25% import tariffs on India, echoing similar threats made in April 2025. Washington will also levy a penalty tariff on Delhi, one of Russia’s major oil buyers, in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti view Trump’s tariff move as a calculated strategy to pressure India into distancing itself from Russia without fully alienating New Delhi, given its strategic importance as a counterweight to China and a key US partner in Asia.
Olga Belenkaya from Finam noted that, based on recent US agreements with Japan and the EU, India has "room to lower its tariffs" in response to Trump’s demands. Lidia Kulik, Head of India Studies at the Skolkovo School of Management, stressed that both the previous 26% and the current 25% tariff levels are lower than those threatened against China, Thailand, Vietnam, and even Bangladesh.
Pavel Koshkin, Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, stated that Trump is pressuring India as part of a strategy to weaken Russia’s negotiating position on Ukraine. He believes this is a deliberate tactic informed not just by Republican instincts but also by strategic counsel: "There is a visible effort to identify pressure points in Russia and its allies. Trump is attempting to achieve what Joe Biden could not. China is more resistant, as Beijing has no incentive to concede," he told Vedomosti.
Kulik suggested that the relatively moderate tariffs reflect Trump’s hesitation to jeopardize relations with India. "India holds a pivotal role as a strategic counterbalance to China and boasts one of the fastest-growing markets in the world. However, the prospects for any agreement remain uncertain amid ongoing pressure over Delhi’s ties with Moscow," he said.
India remains one of the United States’ most vital partners in Asia. While both Washington and Delhi emphasize that India is the "world’s largest democracy," New Delhi aims to maintain its position, balancing relations with the US, Russia, and China. "Trump is forcing a tough decision on India. If Delhi cuts trade with Russia, it will suffer economic losses. If it gives in, it risks appearing inconsistent," Kulik concluded.
Kommersant: Russia’s copper exports to China surge 81%
Russia exported over 564,000 tons of copper to China in the first half of 2025 - a year-on-year increase of 81%, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs. The value of these exports rose by 2.5 times to $3.3 bln. This volume is only 81,000 tons short of Russia’s total copper exports to China for all of 2024 and exceeds the figure for 2019. Russian producers have taken advantage of the cancellation of export duties on cathode copper and shifting global trade flows away from the United States, Kommersant writes. Demand for copper in China is expected to grow further in the second half of the year.
According to Nornickel, the increase in exports was driven by the 2024 abolition of Russia’s export duties on cathode copper. The company added that China is currently the most attractive market for Russian copper, offering both high liquidity and competitive pricing.
Kirill Lysenko, sovereign and regional ratings analyst at Expert RA, attributed the surge in Russian copper exports to continued redirection of trade flows and the ongoing deceleration of the Russian economy. "Weaker investment demand naturally reduces domestic purchases of non-ferrous metals and redirects sales plans toward foreign markets," he noted. Meanwhile, Ilya Makarov, Director of Corporate Ratings at ACRA, reported a slight uptick in Chinese business activity.
Ahmad Aliyev, lead analyst at T-Investments, pointed out that the global copper market was already experiencing imbalances ahead of the US’s planned 50% import tariff on August 1. Speculative demand in the US likely led some companies to redirect copper shipments, possibly from China.
Nornickel expects continued copper demand growth in China through the end of the year, with total annual consumption possibly increasing by 3% to 15.9 mln tons. According to Kirill Lysenko, Russian copper producers still have room to expand their market share in China, where their current footprint remains relatively limited. For example, in the first half of 2025, Russia accounted for just 3.2% of the total value of China’s copper ore and concentrate imports.
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