MOSCOW: Vladimir Putin addresses the BRICS summit, support for dialogue with Russia in the EU is increasing, and Elon Musk launches a new p...
MOSCOW: Vladimir Putin addresses the BRICS summit, support for dialogue with Russia in the EU is increasing, and Elon Musk launches a new party. These stories topped Monday's headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: BRICS summit kicks off in Rio de Janeiro
Not only do BRICS countries account for one-third of land on the globe and almost half of the world’s population, but also for 40% of the global economy, Russian President Vladimir Putin said via video link at the group’s 17th summit being held in Brazil. The Russian leader urged to continue expanding the use of national currencies in mutual transactions, noting that their use in trade between BRICS countries is steadily growing. Additionally, he proposed to increase by several fold the volume of reciprocal investment, including via the New Development Bank.
Other Latin American countries are showing growing interest in the BRICS New Development Bank, Alexander Shchetinin, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Latin American department, told Izvestia. Earlier, Colombia joined the financial structure.
"No doubt, there is obvious interest in the New Development Bank as a financial institution. All decisions on inviting this or that country to join are being made at relevant levels: member states, the bank’s founders, the bank’s members. And this is how they consider individual invitations or interest displayed by various countries. Undoubtedly, there is more active participation by Latin American countries in the institutions being established by BRICS, including the financial and economic ones. This is a positive development due to the countries of the Global South realizing the new position of this group, representing the global majority which reflects the contemporary trends and reality unfolding in the modern world," the diplomat told Izvestia.
BRICS countries represent the global majority and have a clear stance with regard to global conflicts. They oppose Western countries and their accomplices. This solidarity proves that, regardless of cultural differences and frequently diverging interests, the countries are united in standing up for their position on behalf of the global majority, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of Moscow State Pedagogical University’s Institute of History and Politics, told the newspaper.
Izvestia: Number of EU supporters of dialogue with Russia on the rise
Support for direct talks with Russia is increasing in the European Union. In Germany and other EU countries, there are increasingly more "sober-minded" voices, realizing that the absence of dialogue with Moscow contradicts their own interests, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. Earlier, the presidents of Russia and France held their first conversation in the past 2.5 years. The presidents of Slovenia and Slovakia are calling for dialogue with Moscow, while Austria proposes to resume purchases of Russian gas following the end of the Ukraine conflict. The positions of those supporting dialogue will also be bolstered by the anticipated increase in NATO countries’ military spending to 5% GDP as additional costs will be incurred on taxpayers, which should affect election results.
"Unfortunately, these days, we see that the European Union’s policy course is being determined by the aggressive majority. That said, we are registering increasingly more sober-minded voices, and this is reflected not only in statements by politicians, discussions are also held at the level of political parties. We are observing that many political forces in various European countries, including, for example, Germany, fully understand that the absence of dialogue with Russia contradicts the interests of these countries and undermines their security situation," Grushko said.
France has a quite clear assessment of the geopolitical situation, being aware that dialogue with Russia is needed sooner or later, German political scientist Alexander Rahr told Izvestia. In his opinion, Paris, more frequently than Berlin, shows an approach in favor of realpolitik. According to the expert, Germans still believe that they would be able to convince everyone and locate remaining resources to support Ukraine. He does not rule out this position becoming shaky in the near future but currently Germany is assuming leadership with the main goal of containing Russia.
Militarization and increased defense spending up to 5% GDP may trigger a sharp division in European society, Andrey Kortunov, an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club, believes.
"If one supposes that these countries will take this matter seriously and try to bring their spending to 5% GDP in 10 years, then socio-political consequences will be very dire. This will most likely sharply strengthen right-wing populists and various sudden situations are possible, such as government crises or snap elections," he told Izvestia.
Neither one should forget about Ukraine’s conflict on the matters of historical memory with Poland, the issues of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia and the halting of gas transit through Ukraine which impacted Slovakia. The "Trump factor" is also involved. Seeing his aspiration for dialogue with Russia, those still having doubts are becoming more active, Vice-Rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleg Karpovich noted.
"Gradually, inspired by Trump’s example, other leaders of the disintegrated anti-Russian coalition will follow. Certainly, over this time, we have established particularly warm contacts with the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia who are close to Russia ideologically and think pragmatically," he told Izvestia.
The expert concluded that in the future, this trend won’t be restricted to Eastern European countries. In the context of the altered US policy, the Russophobic hysteria will be replaced with a realistic and practically oriented approach to the future of European security.
Vedomosti: Musk declares war on Trump, Republicans, Democrats
On July 5, Elon Musk, billionaire and former advisor to US President Donald Trump, announced on the X social network that a new political party had been formed in the US. "When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy. Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom," he wrote.
Musk’s party will fail, believes Pavel Dubravsky, head of Dubravsky Consulting. There are several reasons for this, including the electoral system, inconvenient for a third party, legislation, Musk’s limitations as a politician and the political consultants’ reluctance to reject the Republicans and Democrats as long-standing customers, the expert said. However, Dubravsky even sees Musk’s party as a loophole for the two main competing parties: for instance, if the Republicans want to undermine a strong candidate at Democrat primaries, they may even back the America Party, the political scientist believes.
Neither resources nor ideology will help Musk succeed because real politicians from the main parties are hardly likely to join him, said American studies expert Alexey Naumov, author of the VneshPol Telegram channel on foreign policy issues. He reiterated the so-called "sore loser law" which prohibits the loser in a primary election from then running as an independent or representing another political party in the general election within the same electoral cycle. Such restrictions exist in 47 out of 50 states. The remaining three, Iowa, Connecticut and New York, have a quite clear political orientation so it will be hard to win them over from a major party.
Musk’s only option is creating a political movement which will endorse certain politicians within the existing parties, Naumov concluded.
Kommersant: OPEC+ raises August quotas due to depleted inventories
In August, OPEC+ countries may fulfill their plan on returning to market 2.5 million barrels per day, which was initially scheduled by the fall of 2026, by 80%. The alliance is increasing production at an accelerated rate due to high seasonal demand, aiming to restore its market share. Analysts believe that increased supply will create primary risks for quotations at the year’s end.
Senior Analyst at BCS World of Investments Kirill Bakhtin believes that the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production is justified amid growing seasonal demand in the middle of the year. According to him, the alliance is gradually implementing the plan of returning 2.5 million barrels per day by the fall of 2026. According to his estimates, in August, increased production will make up about 80% of this volume, while the established quota nearly coincides with the level earlier slated for May 2026.
In the opinion of Sergey Frolov, a managing partner at NEFT Research, the impact on the quotations of the alliance’s new decision will be limited because demand remains stable despite the signs of stagnation in the EU economy and slowing growth rates in China. That said, the analyst added that if the market cannot "digest" the additional volume of supplies or prices drop below the comfortable level for the deal’s key players, this decision may be swiftly reconsidered.
Bakhtin does not rule out that the final stage of raising official quotas by 0.55 million barrels per day may be implemented in September, which will allow completing the production recovery ahead of schedule. The analyst added that then, the alliance will merely have to halt the excess production accumulated earlier. In his opinion, no fundamental problems on the oil market are expected until September, given high seasonal demand, while the main risks of quotations dropping may emerge in Q4.
Vedomosti: EU to sharply reduce import of Ukrainian agricultural products
The European Union will cut the import of wheat and sugar from Ukraine by 70-80%, according to a new trade agreement following talks between Kiev and the European Commission, which concluded on June 30. The quotas announced on July 4 will be higher than those under the first free trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine in effect since 2016, but significantly below the volumes imported over the last three years without duties.
Agricultural products are Europe’s sole imports from Ukraine, said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, associate professor at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. In general, Ukrainian wheat in Europe is used as cattle fodder, the expert noted. As for any potential redirection of Ukrainian agricultural exports to Asia or Africa, this is mostly about expanding and not redirecting the trade flows.
The new trade agreements were prompted by protests by French, German and Polish farmers, said Deputy Director of the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladislav Belov. Reuters said that the European Union took action, responding to rallies by agrarians from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Austria who opposed the flow of Ukrainian wheat, sugar and poultry, flooding the markets after Brussels introduced quota-and duty-free trade measures within the framework of solidarity with Kiev in 2022.
Taking the farmers’ opinion into account is not typical for European bureaucracy and demonstrates the political weight of the agrarian lobby which is significant for national governments, Artyom Sokolov, a senior researcher at the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said. According to him, protests in Europe rarely result in the fulfillment of protesters’ wishes.
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