MOSCOW:Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has its year-end inflation forecast to 6.8%, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov...
MOSCOW:Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has its year-end inflation forecast to 6.8%, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov announced.
The ministry expects real household income to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Russia's GDP growth in 2026 was raised to 0.6%.
In its updated forecast, the Economic Development Ministry set the price of Brent crude at $73 per barrel for 2027, with a projected decline to $66 by 2029.
TASS has summarized the key points of the ministry's forecast as presented by the minister.
Household income
- Consumer demand remains a driver of economic growth.
- The ministry expects a significant increase in consumer demand--by 4.1%--in 2026.
- The ministry projects real household income growth of 0.8% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
- Growth is expected to accelerate to 2.8% by 2029.
- The historically low unemployment rate of 2.3% remains a limiting factor in the labor market.
Inflation
- The Economic Development Ministry expects inflation to return to the Central Bank's target of 4% by the end of 2027.
- The year-end inflation forecast has been raised to 6.8%.
- The ministry raised its GDP growth estimate for 2026 to 0.6%.
- The Economic Development Ministry also projects an acceleration in GDP growth from 1.4% to 2.4% during the 2027-2029 period.
Dollar exchange rate
- The average annual dollar exchange rate in 2026 is projected at 79.5 rubles.
- The Economic Development Ministry anticipates a gradual weakening of the ruble between 2027 and 2029.
- The ministry forecasts the dollar exchange rate at 86 rubles by the end of 2026, a figure that remains unchanged from the initial scenario assumptions.
Oil production and energy prices
- The Economic Development Ministry estimates Russia's oil production at 494 million tonnes in 2026, with a projected recovery to 500 million tonnes in 2027.
- The updated forecast sets the price of Brent crude at $73 per barrel for 2027, declining to $66 by 2029.
- The price forecast for Urals crude has been raised by $1-3, reflecting an assumption of a wider discount relative to Brent.
- The ministry expects the price of Urals crude to be $53 per barrel in 2027 and $51 by 2029.
- This is slightly above the $50 cut-off price established for 2027.
Investment
- The ministry’s investment forecast takes into account the higher interest rate trend projected by the Bank of Russia.
- A recovery-driven growth of 0.2% is expected to begin in 2027.
- The proposed budget framework creates room for easing monetary policy conditions and reviving investment activity in Russia.
- In its forecast, the Economic Development Ministry projects a return to investment growth in 2028-2029, reaching 2.5% and 3%, respectively.
Exports
- The Economic Development Ministry’s updated forecast takes into account reduced gas supplies to the EU, more moderate export growth to China, and LNG restrictions resulting from sanctions.
- Net exports are expected to contribute an average of approximately 0.2 percentage points annually to Russia's GDP growth over the next three years.
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