MOSCOW: The collapse of US-Iran negotiations could lead to a prolonged, moderate-intensity conflict unfolding in three distinct stages, t...
MOSCOW: The collapse of US-Iran negotiations could lead to a prolonged, moderate-intensity conflict unfolding in three distinct stages, transforming into a war characterized by a battle of nerves, financial strain, and dwindling patience. This prognosis was outlined by Nikolay Gaponenko, PhD in economics and associate professor at the Department of Economic Security at the Institute of Law and National Security, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), in an interview with TASS.
On April 11, Iran and the United States engaged in several rounds of talks in Islamabad. The Iranian delegation was led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, while Vice President JD Vance represented the US. According to reports from Tehran and Washington, the negotiations ended without a breakthrough, primarily due to persistent disagreements. Details regarding the potential for follow-up discussions remain unclear.
Gaponenko suggests that the initial phase will likely see increased hostilities in northern Israel within the next ten days. "Although some documents may still mention a ceasefire, in practice, it's essentially over. We should anticipate a sharp escalation in fighting in southern Lebanon. Israel will attempt to destroy Hezbollah missile launchers and depots swiftly and extensively," he explained. However, he notes that Iran is unlikely to respond with a large-scale missile attack on Israeli cities - such a move would be too risky and predictable.
The next likely development involves attempts to destabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. "IRGC boats and drones will begin targeting oil tankers, prompting an immediate reaction from the oil market - prices could surge as early as Monday," Gaponenko warned.
The second phase, projected over a six-month horizon, is expected to be the most perilous. "Iranian leaders find themselves in a deadlock. Negotiations have yielded no outcomes - no security guarantees, sanctions relief, or refunds. In this environment, the temptation to enrich uranium up to 90% weapons-grade becomes very strong," he stated. According to Gaponenko, Iran's primary aim is not necessarily to develop a nuclear weapon but to accrue leverage for future negotiations. "However, Israel will not wait for Tehran to achieve this advantage. The response will likely be rapid and severe - strikes on nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, probably with tacit American support and technical assistance," he predicted.
Looking further ahead, the long-term scenario involves a war of attrition. "A large-scale exchange of ballistic missile strikes seems unlikely and counterproductive for all involved," Gaponenko remarked. Instead, he envisions a more realistic, enduring conflict of moderate intensity. "The US will continue systematic bombing of Iranian targets and of Tehran’s allies in Iraq and Syria. Israel may become embroiled in a complex, bloody campaign in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran will covertly attack American bases via proxy forces and create chaos in the Strait of Hormuz," he said. Ultimately, this could evolve into a sustained "war of nerves, budgets, and patience" that endures for years.
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