Members of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan undergoing training at their outpost near Erbil, Iraq. This is a leftist Kurdish group ...
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| Members of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan undergoing training at their outpost near Erbil, Iraq. This is a leftist Kurdish group that has been conducting an armed struggle against the Islamic Republic regime from exile for decades |
N. Prabhakaran
Dubai: Following the realization that crushing Iran would not be as easy as expected, reports suggest the CIA is planning to provide weapons to Kurdish rebel forces to ignite a popular uprising within the country. CNN reported this information, citing sources familiar with the plan.
The Trump administration is reportedly engaged in active discussions with Kurdish leaders in Iraq and Iranian opposition groups. The move aims to provide military assistance to Kurdish groups that stationed thousands of fighters along the Iraq-Iran border.
In the coming days, Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are likely to launch a ground offensive in western Iran. These groups believe they will have the support of the US and Israel.
One objective of this move is to create an opportunity for ordinary Iranian civilians in cities to protest without significant danger while Kurdish forces engage the Iranian security apparatus. Additionally, this strategy would force the Iranian regime to disperse its military resources across multiple fronts.
To pave the way for Kurdish forces to enter Iran, the Israeli military has been conducting strikes against Iranian military posts along the Iraqi border. Reports indicate these attacks are expected to intensify in the coming days.
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| Fighters of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) in the outskirts of Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan, near the Iranian border in Iraq |
However, some former diplomats are warning against this move. Jen Gavito, a former official in the Biden administration, stated that this would undermine Iraqi sovereignty and empower unaccountable armed groups.
Furthermore, internal disputes among Kurdish groups and past experiences with the United States pose challenges to this plan. There is a feeling among Kurdish forces that the US has abandoned them several times before. Therefore, they are maintaining a stance that they will only cooperate actively if they receive clear political guarantees this time.
On February 22, five Kurdish groups formed an alliance to work together against the current Iranian regime. The union of these groups, which hold different ideologies, is seen as a significant development.
Key Groups Involved:
Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI): Founded in 1945 and currently led by Mustafa Hijri. This is one of the oldest Kurdish parties in Iran and played a crucial role in declaring a short-lived Kurdish state in 1946. Its former leaders, Qazi Muhammad and Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou, were assassinated by the Iranian regime. It is a centrist nationalist group with close ties to the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iraq.
Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK): Led by Hussein Yazdanpana. Established in the 1990s, this group fought alongside the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga against ISIS from 2014 to 2017. Known for their bravery in frontline combat, the group includes both men and women in its military ranks.
Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK): Founded in 2004 and led by a woman, Peyman Viyan. It is the only Kurdish group with a woman in a top leadership position. It is a left-leaning group linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Since it operates mainly in the mountains, US support for this group is being watched closely due to potential impacts on relations with Turkey.
Komala (Social Democratic Party): Founded in 1969, led by Reza Kaabi and Abdullah Mohtadi. They envision a secular democratic federal system to replace Iran's current theocratic regime. While it has several factions, the main branches joined the February 22 alliance.
Peyman Viyan Kurdistan Free Life Party
Khabat (Islamic Kurdish Organization): Founded in 1980 and led by Baba Sheikh Hosseini. Their primary demand is autonomy for Kurdish regions in Iran.
Strategic Outlook
Kurdish people make up approximately 10% of Iran's population (about 8–10 million people). The opposition groups operating on the Iraq-Iran border currently have the support of thousands of armed fighters. It is assessed that their new alliance will pose a major challenge to the Iranian regime.
The US and Israel believe that bringing all these factions under one umbrella could enable a significant movement against the Iranian government. Their plan involves clearing the way for these groups via airstrikes. The calculation is that while these fighters engage Iranian forces directly, pro-democracy activists will take to the streets against the theocratic government. This would force the Iranian military to focus more on internal matters, making things easier for the US and Israel.
The US has now realized that Iran has stockpiled a massive number of missiles and weapons from China and Russia. Iran is putting up a much stronger resistance than anticipated. Furthermore, the fact that China is providing Iran with extensive satellite intelligence is a setback for the US. It is at this stage that the move to deploy the Kurds has been initiated.
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