MOSCOW: The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will decide on the key rate on April 24, with an overwhelming majority of experts expec...
MOSCOW: The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will decide on the key rate on April 24, with an overwhelming majority of experts expecting it to be cut to 14.5% per annum. In their forecasts, analysts noted that the regulator has already shifted to a trajectory of gradual easing, inflation at current rates is in the range of about 4-5% year-on-year, and a pause would appear to be an overly tight signal amid an economic slowdown.
At its previous meeting in March, the Bank of Russia cut the key rate for the second time in a row since the beginning of the year by 0.5 percentage points to 15% per annum, noting that the economy is approaching a trajectory of balanced growth, price growth in February slowed as expected following a temporary acceleration in January, and underlying inflation indicators, according to the Bank of Russia, remained in the range of 4-5% in annualized terms.
Expert opinions
All 18 analysts surveyed by TASS believe that a decision will be made on April 24 to lower the key rate to 14.5%. "At the next two Central Bank meetings, we expect key rate cuts of 0.5 percentage points to 14.5%. Overall, the market segment of the economy is in stagnation, but this is not only the effect of the rate, in our view, but also the Finance Ministry’s policy of raising effective tax rates. Demand in the economy was weak in the first quarter of 2026. However, the economy will gradually begin to recover. The Finance Ministry is actively spending, funds are flowing out of deposits, and the mortgage market is reviving in anticipation of lower rates," Ilya Fedorov, Chief Economist at BCS World of Investments, said.
At the same time, according to Natalia Pyryeva, Head of Research at Tsifra Broker, the main reasons for continuing the monetary easing cycle are the noticeable cooling of the economy and emerging risks for businesses, as well as inflation moving along the projected trajectory and even somewhat better than expected. Pyryeva also added that external risks remain, and by the upcoming meeting the Bank of Russia will not be able to provide a precise assessment, as due to time lags the effect has not yet materialized. "Moreover, the level of uncertainty in the Middle East remains high, so the consequences in the event of a prolonged conflict are entirely unclear," she emphasized.
At the same time, Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam Financial Group, expressed the view that uncertainty stemming from pro-inflationary factors persists. "However, in our view, the overall data currently point toward a key rate cut; otherwise, the risks of excessive cooling of the economy increase. A notable signal can also be seen in the decline in household inflation expectations in April," she stressed.
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